Just as Hurricane Florence battered the Carolinas in September of this year, a more powerful storm from a quite different perspective continues its steady movement toward the United States and other nations around the globe, with enormous and unprecedented implications for the health sector of the economy. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the year 2030 marks an important demographic turning point in this country’s history because by that year, all baby boomers will be older than age 65. This transition will expand the size of the older population so that one in every five residents will be retirement age. Moreover, aging of baby boomers (whose members were born between 1946 and 1964) means that in less than two decades, older individuals are projected to outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history. By 2035, there will be 78.0 million persons 65 years and older compared to 76.7 million under the age of 18.
As the population ages, the ratio of older adults to working-age adults, also known as the old-age dependency ratio, is projected to rise. By 2020, there will be just over three-and-a-half working-age adults for every retirement-age person. By 2060, that ratio will fall to just under two-and-a-half working-age adults for every retirement-age person. The non-Hispanic White alone population is projected to shrink over the coming decades, from 199 million in 2020 to 179 million in 2060, even as the U.S. population continues to grow. Their decline is driven by falling birth rates and a rising number of deaths over time among non-Hispanic Whites as that population sub-group ages. The racial and ethnic composition of younger birth cohorts is expected to change more quickly than for older cohorts. In 2060, over 36.4% of children are projected to be non-Hispanic White alone compared with 55.1% of older adults. Key policy issues that must be addressed: meeting the health care needs of an older cohort that disproportionately will be affected by chronic disease, assuring the availability of an adequate supply of competently-prepared health practitioners, and determining how to pay for health and health-related social services.
More Articles from TRENDS September 2018
FULFILLING A QUEST FOR PATIENT-CENTERED CARE
Patient-centered care is an important aspect of service delivery, but more efforts are needed to achieve its full potential. Read More
PRESIDENT’S CORNER—ASAHP MEMBER FOCUS
Charles Gulas, Dean of the Walker College of Health Professions at Maryville University of Saint Louis, is featured in this issue of TRENDS. Read More
FISCAL YEAR 2019 FUNDING PICTURE BRIGHTENS
For the first time in 15 years, Congress manages to complete a funding package for health and education prior to the start of the next fiscal year on October 1. Read More
HEALTH REFORM DEVELOPMENTS
Some states seek workforce requirements for certain Medicaid recipients, a challenge is mounted to stop an expansion of short-term health insurance plans, and savings are produced by accountable care organizations. Read More
DEVELOPMENTS IN HIGHER EDUCATION
Opponents respond to a Trump Administration proposal to rescind gainful employment regulations, representatives of various interest groups testify at a U.S. Department of Education hearing on accreditation, and Congress increases appropriations for education programs. Read More
QUICK STAT (SHORT, TIMELY, AND TOPICAL)
Prevalence Of Chronic Pain And High-Impact Chronic Pain Among Adults—United States
Daily Use Of Marijuana Among Non-College Young Adults
Micromotor Pills As A Dynamic Oral Delivery Platform
Using Biomimicry To Develop Solutions For Human Health Problems Read More
AVAILABLE RESOURCES ACCESSIBLE ELECTRONICALLY
Creating A Policy Environment To Address Social Determinants Of Health
Population Health: Translation Of Research To Policy
Achieving Rural Health Equity And Well-Being: Proceedings Of A Workshop Read More