In midterm elections, the President’s party in its first term typically loses more than 30 seats in the House (Democrats lost 63 House seats under Obama in 2010 and Republicans lost 40 seats under Trump in 2018) and incurs Senate loses as well. With President Biden’s approval ratings in the low 40s, inflation at a 40-year high, and a momentum shift in favor of the Republicans over the last several weeks in major polls, a “red wave” was expected. However, Democrats beat expectations, defying historical trends. As votes are still being counted, control of the House and Senate still remains uncertain.
At the moment, Republicans have secured 49 Senate seats and Democrats have secured 48, leaving three seats (Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada) still undecided. As neither candidate in Georgia received 50 percent of the vote a runoff will be held on Tuesday, December 6, and could determine control of the Senate, depending on the results of Arizona and Nevada of course. Just as in the current 117th Congress, a 50-50 Senate gives Democrats control due to Vice President Harris’ tie-breaking vote.
In the House, 218 seats are needed for a majority and Republicans currently have secured 209 seats while Democrats have secured 191 seats.
At the moment it looks like Democrats could keep the Senate and Republicans will win control of the House, with a narrow margin that would make the Speaker’s job leading the factions of the Republican party difficult. Gridlock is likely, along with a focus on oversight on issues such as regulations, student loan forgiveness, and pandemic policies. The Administration’s FY 24 budget request would be summarily dismissed by House Republicans, and this may result in year long Continuing Resolution, flat funding for FY 24.
The four Appropriations Committee leaders are expected to all be women, a first. Likely leads in the Senate are Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), while likely leads in the House are Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX) and Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT).
On the House Education & Labor Committee, Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA) is expected to remain the lead Democrat. On the Republican side, Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) is seeking a waiver. However, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (D-CA), who is expected to be Speaker if Republicans take the House, may feel pressure not to grant waivers. If her waiver is not granted then the lead Republican could be Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) or Tim Walberg (R-MI).
On the Senate HELP Committee, the lead Democrat could be Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) or Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), while the lead Republican could be Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) or Sen. Bill Cassidy (D-LA).
When Congress reconvenes for its lame duck session its agenda for the remainder of this Congress includes FY 23 appropriations, as the current Continuing Resolution expires December 16.
Election commentary from the Chronicle of Higher Education may be accessed here.