Projections released by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) indicate that the U.S. faces a shortage of between 40,800 and 104,900 physicians by 2030. Projected shortfalls range between 7,300 and 43,100 for primary care and between 33,500 and 61,800 for non-primary care specialties.
The report can be obtained at https://aamc-black.global.ssl.fastly.net/production/media/filer_public/a5/c3/a5c3d565-14ec-48fb-974b-99fafaeecb00/aamc_projections_update_2017.pdf.